Thursday night was a nice pick for me with Boise St, as it played out the way I predicted. It was scary at first with a quick 14-0 lead for OSU, but from then on it was all Boise, giving me a 3* win and equaling my record at 3-3 on the season. Here we go with my 5 picks for tomorrow...
5* Cal -8 over Minnesota - This game is the definition of line value. Cal started the season #9 in the country but got blown away last week at Tennessee, who was very underrated. Minnesota went to Kent St and absolutely destroyed them 44-0. However, Minnesota was +5 in turnovers AND stopped Kent St TWICE inside the 1 yard line. Kent had a chance to get back in the game, got stopped, and it just snowballed. Minny is nowhere near as good as that score indicated, and Cal is far more talented than they showed last week. If this game was played a week ago, Cal would have been favored by 15. They still should be.
4* Oklahoma -16` over Washington - Again, line value on Oklahoma, but Washington barely got away with a home win vs San Jose, so that evens out this line from a value standpoint. However in this game OU is at home, were -3 in turnovers (won't happen this week), and Washington's weak defense will not be able to stop Adrian Petersen, as OU wins big.
3* New Mexico St +7` over New Mexico - New Mexico lost to 1-AA Portland St last week, showing how much they miss their stud RB Moore from last season. NM St is a much improved team from last year. In fact I picked NM St to win this game even before New Mex lost last week, and I'll stick with that, though I wish the line was a little higher, I'm still a strong NM St lean.
2* North Carolina +13 over Virginia Tech - VA Tech is certainly an outstanding team, and North Carolina's QB is Joe Dailey. So why NC? That spread is steadily going up, as it opened at 10, which means the public is betting VA Tech. The public are morons when it comes to betting (as am I, but not as big as most). NC relishes the role as a home underdog, and despite losing to Rutgers at home this week, they will come out fired up and will compete. VA Tech isn't as talented as they normally are, they are much better at home than on the road, especially with an untested QB making his 1st career road start. Also we are getting great line value with that home loss to Rutgers (and even more so as the line has gone up). NC has covered 7 straight as an ACC home underdog (including 6 straight outright!), and lose this in a close game, but should easily cover the 13 points.
1* Fresno +3 over Oregon - This should be a very entertaining game. One of the biggest reasons I like Fresno is that Oregon has Oklahoma at home next week, and this is a look ahead game. Fresno will be fired up as they always are for games against BCS teams, have a huge home advantage, and win this game outright.
Good Luck!
I'll post my NFL picks tomorrow, as I really don't know what I'm going to take in the NFL yet.
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