My 2006 COLLEGE Football Preview

First I will give you my national top 10, then I will get into my Big 12 preview, followed by a few other notes, and then my Husker Preview.

First is my top 10. This is my prediction of FINAL POSTSEASON standing. So it's not how good a team is, but how good they are along with their schedule, thus giving them their finish. In other words my #1 is who I think will win the BCS Championship. This season there is a true BCS Championship, and my #2 and #1 teams are my picks to be in the Championship. Not perfect, but it's a little closer to a playoff. Small steps to an eventual playoff hopefully. Anyway, here we go...

10 Texas - Vince Young put on an outstanding show last year against USC, one of the most impressive performances I've ever seen. So impressive that I think it was even better than Tommie Frazier's performance in the '96 Fiesta Bowl against Florida. Unfortunately he is in the NFL now. Texas still has tons of talent coming back, with the best offensive line in the game, which will help the freshman QB adjust. Unfortunately they have to play at Nebraska, at Texas Tech, and plays Oklahoma. They will be very good, and hard to beat, but will not repeat.

9 Ohio St - Many people, including the voters, think that Ohio St is the #1 team. I completely disagree. Yes, they are going to have an outstanding team, but they must replace 9 defensive starters. They also had 5 players drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. You just can't replace that kind of talent and expect to improve. In addition they have road games at Iowa and Texas, and I think they lose both of those games.

8 Florida St - FSU is going to field the best team they have had in years, as they have had a few down years in a row. We'll find out a lot on Monday against Miami, but I think FSU wins that game with an experienced QB in Weatherford and a bunch of solid players suspended from Miami. I see FSU losing only 1 game in the regular season - at Maryland. But then Miami will get their revenge in the ACC Title game, relegating FSU to this spot in my rankings.

7 Arkansas - We will find out a lot about this team early as well, as USC comes to Arkansas on Saturday. They just crept into my rankings tonight, as their great running back McFadden should be playing on Saturday after breaking his foot in a night club at 4 AM a few weeks ago. Nice move. But he is a stud, as he had 1181 yards last season as a true frosh. They return 10 starters on offense, 9 on defense, and have excellent special teams, to go along with an outstanding coach in Houston Nutt. I think they beat USC, and the only loss on the regular season is at Auburn. If they win at Auburn, they have a great shot to make the BCS Title game, though they would have trouble with Tennessee in the SEC Championship.

6 Miami - Despite the opening game loss I predict against FSU, I see them losing again a few weeks later at Louisville. But after that, the schedule and talent of Miami will take over. This is going to be one hell of a defense, and I expect big things for the QB Wright, and after a rough start they come on strong throughout the year, finishing very high in my rankings.

5 Louisville - Everyone in the country is picking West Virginia to win the Big East. They are idiots. West Virginia is the most overrated team in the country because of a misleading outstanding finish to last season. Louisville has one of the best QB's in the country in Brohm, one of the best RB's in Bush, along with solid talent all around them. I predict only one loss this season, at Pitt. Louisville gets West VA at home, and after blowing a 24-7 lead against West VA last year, Louisville wins that game easy, taking the Big East and winning their BCS game to finish #5.

4 USC - I truly hate USC. So much that I was even cheering for Texas to beat them last year! But they are damn good. The problem is that they lose all of their skill players - including 2 Heisman winners! They should have a much improved defense, but they have just 4 starters back on offense, needing to replace Bush, White, Leinart, and need to rebuild the O-line. However they have tons of talent to replace them, plus the best receiver tandem in the country. I only see 3 possible losses on the season, all early in the year - at Arkansas, Nebraska, and at Arizona. If they win those three games they could easily move into BCS Chamionship contention, as the only other possible losses would be against Cal and ND, and I don't see that happening. However, I see them losing 1 or 2 games early, keeping them out of the Championship season. NOTE: IF USC is undefeated going into the last game of the year, ND will beat them to spoil their chances!

3 Oklahoma - This should be the clear cut #1 team. However their idiot QB Rhett Bomar took money, and got kicked off the team. They do have my pick for the Heisman at RB - Adrian Peterson. If Bomar was on this team they would stroll to the title, but instead they will turn to a QB whom they moved to WR last season and now moves back to QB (Thompson). This team has 9 starters back on defense, with far and away the best defense in the country. The problem is that I see them stumbling once or twice this season keeping them out of the BCS Title game, but will win the Big 12, along with their BSC Bowl Game, finishing 3rd.


2 Auburn - Auburn only returns 12 starters, but also return 23 seniors, so they have quite a bit of experience. They also haave a very good RB\QB combo in Irons and Cox. But this is not the #2 team in the country. In fact, they are probably more like 10th to 12th. But the reason they can get into the BCS Championship game is their favorable schedule. They only have 4 road games, and none are tough games. I only see 3 possible losses before the bowl - Arkansas, Florida, and the SEC Championship (against Tennesse), but I think they will win all of those and lose in the BCS Championship game to...

...


1, My pick to win it all...IOWA - Yes, that's right. Last year I picked a Big 10 team and I was way off. But not this year. Let me list the reasons. They have 14 starters back, which is a great number. They averaged 30 points\game last year, and have their SR QB Tate, RB Young, and an outstanding O-Line, which means they should score well over 30 this year. The one question is that they lose some good players in the front 7. However they have tons of talent on defense, which is my one worry. But they also have tons of great talent coming in and should be just as good or better than last year's solid defense. They also will have one of the best groups of Special Teams in the country, and Kirk Ferentz is one of the best coaches in the country. This is his most talented team, as he has gotten lower talented teams to be very good, and I expect this team to be great. The only potential losses I see are Ohio St, at Michigan, and at Minnesota in the last game of the year, but I think they will win all those. Every team has their question marks, but I feel like Iowa has the fewest, and wins the National Title!

NOTES - There are some more teams that deserve mention as being very solid with opportunities for great seasons:
Notre Dame - ND should be very good, as they have one of the best offenses in the country, if not the best. They have 9 starters back on defense and should be improved, but this is the problem. The defense couldn't stop anyone last year, so those 9 guys back isn't necessarily a good thing. However, if that defense does come around, I only see 5 losable games on the season - at Georgia Tech, Michigan, at Michigan St, at Navy, and at USC. The reason I don't have the Irish in my top 10 is what I feel are 2 guaranteed losses - Mich St and USC. We'll find out a lot on Saturday. BUT, I also feel ND is a legit BCS title contender. My shocker of the year though comes from ND - Navy will beat ND for the 1st time in 46 tries! ND goes 9-3.
Utah - This is always a solid team, but this year they are very good, and could easily finish in the top 5 or 10. They have great QB's, RB's, and an outstanding defense, to go along with a fairly weak schedule. I predict that they lose 2 games, but could just as easily go undefeated.
Boise St - This team is really getting overlooked this year, I think because they lost coach Hawkins to Colorado. But they hired their offensive coordinator and should not miss a beat. They have 18 returning starters coming back from a very good 9-4 team!!! Those 4 losses were all against BCS teams except Fresno, who almost beat USC the following week. They have a Heisman hopeful in QB Zabransky, great WR's, have an incredible O-Line and a great defense. I predict only 1 loss, at Utah, and could draw a solid bowl game and possible top 10 finish.

BIG XII Picks - Order of finish
North - 1. Nebraska, 2. Colorado, 3. (Tie) Iowa St, Missouri, 5. Kansas St, 6. Kansas
South - 1. Oklahoma, 2. (Tie) Texas, Texas A&M, 4. Texas Tech, 5. Oklahoma St, 6. Baylor
Big XII Championship Game in Kansas City
Oklahoma 24, Nebraska 13

HUSKER PREVIEW
We'll start with a position by position analysis...
QB - 2 words - Zac Taylor. 5 words - Harrison Beck is a pussy. Beck is gone, and good riddance. We don't need someone on this team that cares more about himself than he cares about the team. Callahan handled it great. This could have been a major distraction, but he addressed the problem immediately. Not only that, it shows that Callahan believes that no one player is bigger than the team, and has already brought in 2 good QB's since! Back to Taylor. He showed a lot of guts, heart, leadership, and eventually you could see that he really learned the offense. With an outstanding offseason of hard work, I expect him to be in preseason form from game 1, and big things will happen off the arm of Taylor this year. The key is that he needs to be healthy because the backups are WEAK.
RB - Some see this position as a question mark. I see those people as fucking morons. And that's being nice. Last season NU averaged 96 yards per game on the ground, one of the worst in the country. I loved Ross, but he was average at best and will not be missed. Enter Cody Glenn and Marlon Lucky, who were the #25 and #3 RB's in the country out of high school. Also enter Kenny Wilson, the #1 JUCO RB from this season, and Brandon Jackson. So Ross is gone, but now there are 3 NFL caliber RB's, and I expect the rushing totals to at least DOUBLE last season's totals. As I said, this is a question mark for most, but I expect a very exciting group.
WR - I can't believe the WR position - it might be the biggest strength of this team! Nate Swift caught 45 passes for 641 yards and 7 TD's, and didn't even play until half way through the season. Terrence Nunn also had a great year with 495 yards and 7 TD's. Frantz Hardy should have a good year too, along with Todd Peterson. But the most exciting players are just coming in now. Maurice Purify was a JUCO stud, as the #3 JUCO receiver. Matt Herian is also back, making this one of the best receiving corps in the country!
Offensive Line - This is the other question mark of the offense. Last year there was tons of shuffling and lots of freshman saw playing time. That is a good thing, as those freshman were highly talented. All Big 12 Center Kurt Mann is back along with Greg Austin. Stud JUCO Carl Nicks joins the line, and this is a great combination of experience and youthful talent, and this is definitely a question mark but I think they will be very solid early and by the end of the year will be very good.
Defensive Line - This is easy. Last season all this group did was lead the country in sacks. Adam Carriker had 9` sacks and may be the best defensive end in the country, and is complemented greatly on the other side by Jay Moore. There are studs backing those guys up in Zach Potter and Barry Turner. The 2 starting DT's from last year are gone, but the new guys are just as good, if not better, and played a ton last year. The rotation of Dagunduro, Suh, Cryer, Steinkhuler, and Brandon Johnson will make this one of the top defensive lines in the country.
Linebackers - Yet another easy one. This was one of the best sets of linebackers in the country - even after studs Octavien and Bradley got hurt. This year both of them are back healthy, and McKeon, Ruud, Brandenburgh, and Dillard all return too. This is a top 5 Linebacking corps in the country. Add that to the defensive line, and this is possibly the best front 7 in the country.
Defensive Backs - Good thing that front 7 is so great, because this one is not so easy. If Zack Bowman was playing, this would be a great secondary, but he blew out his knee, and there goes our best DB for the year. On the bright side, Grixby is back, the starting safeties could be very good, and Andre Jones looks ready to fill in nicely for Bowman. I'm excited for Tierre Green at safety. He has been a RB and a CB, and in his first year at safety I expect big things, as he's seen the field from every perspective, he should be a good leader and should produce. This group better stay healthy, as the 4 starters should be fine, because there are simply too many converted receivers playing in the secondary this year. Ouch. There is potential, but that front 7 better be up to their billing.
Special Teams - This should be another easy one. Jordan Congdon was the #1 kicker out of high school and he didn't disappoint in his freshman year, going 19-23 on FG's. We have to replace the #1 Husker punter of all time, but there are plenty of good punters that should do well. The coverage teams were great last year, and will be this year too. Nunn was a great punt returner and is back. Kenny Wilson and Marlon Lucky will be returning kickoffs, and should be electric. Expect at least a couple TD's on returns this season.

That's the position outlook. If that secondary comes through, this could be a great season. But it could go either way. This team could go 7-5, or it could go 12-0! With that offense, front 7, outstanding special teams, this could be a very good team. The tough games are at USC, at Iowa St, Texas, at Oklahoma St, and at Texas A&M. We will find out a lot on September 16 at USC. If NU can win that game, and I give a decent chance of this happening, though not a great chance. My prediction last season was dead on. This year I predict that Nebraska goes 9-3 (6-2 in conference), loses the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma, then goes to the Cotton Bowl or Gator Bowl, winning that game against a top notch SEC or ACC team. I just can't wait to be sitting in Memorial Stadium on Saturday!!!

GO BIG RED!

As if you needed a reason to not let your kids smoke

From the NY Times today...

Raising Nicotine Doses, on the Sly

Published: August 31, 2006

While most of us thought the country was trying to curb smoking, and the rapacious habits of the tobacco companies, it turns out the industry has been sneakily making cigarettes more addictive.

Evidence of what looks like an increasingly desperate effort to hook new young smokers and prevent older ones from quitting has been uncovered by a Massachusetts law that forces tobacco companies to report test results showing how much nicotine is inhaled by typical smokers of their various brands.

This week, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health revealed that from 1998 through 2004, as public health campaigns were mounted to curb smoking, the manufacturers increased the amount of addictive nicotine delivered to the average smoker by 10 percent. Of 179 cigarette brands tested in 2004, an astonishing 166 brands fell into the state’s highest nicotine yield range, including 59 brands that the manufacturers had labeled “light” and 14 described as “ultra-light.” The three most popular brands chosen by young smokers — Marlboro, Newport and Camel — all delivered significantly more nicotine as the years passed. Virtually all brands were found to deliver a high enough nicotine dose to cause heavy dependence.

This trend has escaped notice because the standard government test uses a smoking machine that fails to mimic real-life smoking. A manufacturer, for example, can design a cigarette that will score low in nicotine delivery to the machine by placing tiny ventilation holes in the filter to dilute the smoke. But in real life a smoker will often cover the vents with lips or fingers, thereby inhaling a higher dose of nicotine. When Massachusetts required the manufacturers to use what it considered a more realistic method, the nicotine yields were more than twice those found on the standard test.

The Massachusetts approach may not be perfect, but it is surely a lot more accurate than the traditional test, which virtually all independent experts consider deficient.

It is stunning to discover how easily this rogue industry was able to increase public consumption of nicotine without anyone knowing about it until Massachusetts blew the whistle. The Massachusetts report bears out the conclusions of a federal judge in Washington, who recently concluded that the companies have designed cigarettes to produce low nicotine readings on the standard test while delivering enough nicotine to create and sustain addiction. It is long past time for Congress to bring this damaging and deceitful industry under federal regulatory control. If the companies had to justify to the Food and Drug Administration why they should be allowed to increase the nicotine inhaled by smokers, you can bet they wouldn’t even try.

Welcome Back, Blog

It has been a long time since my last blog posting - January 4th to be exact. But with all that is going on, I think it's time to get the blog back up and running - we have football starting in a few short days, elections in a couple of months, and I'm ready to get back to blogging.

If you haven't read much of my blog, it is all archived on the site. The main things I discuss are sports, politics and news, my life (and others), and anything worth discussing. It's pretty obvious - the title is "...Go Big Red...Go Away Bush..." Fairly self-explanatory. You can also add comments to any of my posts, which is always encouraged, and I also will post polls from time to time. If you know of anyone else that may be interested in reading my blog, please feel free to pass it on.

A lot has happened since that last post on January 4th. Let's see, Cheney shot someone in the face, the NSA is reading this as I type, along with you talking to your friend in Ireland, we are STILL in Iraq, and somehow it's even worse now than it was before. In March I finally graduated from college (on the quick 13 year plan!) And since I apparently enjoy torture I recently started grad school at UNO. So I'm busy as shit, and with football coming up in a few days, I'm completely booked for a few months.

I don't have a set schedule for postings, but roughly here is how it will work:

• During the week I'll just post whatever is on my mind, articles I enjoyed, or really anything.
• Every Friday morning if you are looking for a good laugh, this will be the perfect place to go, as there will be a funny link, joke, or article that I'd like to share.
• If you are visiting my blog for football picks, that's a smart move. Every single Saturday morning (and some Friday nights, this one for sure since I'll be going to Lincoln early for the game Saturday!) will be my top 5 college picks for the day, along with my top 5 NFL picks. Last season my 5* rated picks went 62% (8-5), and my overall season was 58% (34-25). The best part though was that I only had 3 losing weekends all year, which is most important. I also went 11-7 in bowl games (61%). Vegas handicapper goals are 55%, and even though I exceeded that number, I was very disappointed and expect a better percentage this season.
• Last season I picked the Nebraska football season almost on the nose. From last season: "In the end, the Huskers go 7-4 and get to a decent bowl game, where we beat a middle of the road Big 10, SEC, or Pac 10 team, for an 8-4 finish. Pretty solid improvement and it will only get better in 2006!" Well, the Huskers simply finished 8-4 by winning a decent Alamo Bowl against middle of the road Big 10 team Michigan! My entire college football season preview will come before Saturday (probably Wednesday or Thursday), along with my Husker preview, so keep an eye out for that. The following week will be my complete NFL preview.

Everyone enjoy the rest of your summer and have a great fall! Wait, I haven't really even posted anything other than a heads up. So here's an example of something to expect from my blog. Paul Krugman wrote an outstanding Op-Ed in the NYT Monday, cutting pretty hard on Bush, and I can always admire that. Here it is...

August 28, 2006

Op-Ed Columnist

Broken Promises

By PAUL KRUGMAN

Last September President Bush stood in New Orleans, where the lights had just come on for the first time since Katrina struck, and promised “one of the largest reconstruction efforts the world has ever seen.” Then he left, and the lights went out again.

What happened next was a replay of what happened after Mr. Bush asked Congress to allocate $18 billion for Iraqi reconstruction. In the months that followed, congressmen who visited Iraq returned with glowing accounts of all the wonderful things we were doing there, like repainting schools and, um, repainting schools.

But when the Coalition Provisional Authority, which was running Iraq, closed up shop nine months later, it turned out that only 2 percent of the $18 billion had been spent, and only a handful of the projects that were supposed to have been financed with that money had even been started. In the end, America failed to deliver even the most basic repair of Iraq’s infrastructure; today, Baghdad gets less than seven hours of electricity a day.

And so it is along our own Gulf Coast. The Bush administration likes to talk about all the money it has allocated to the region, and it plans a public relations blitz to persuade America that it’s doing a heck of a job aiding Katrina’s victims. But as the Iraqis learned, allocating money and actually using it for reconstruction are two different things, and so far the administration has done almost nothing to make good on last year’s promises.

It’s true that tens of billions have been spent on emergency relief and cleanup. But even the cleanup remains incomplete: almost a third of the hurricane debris in New Orleans has yet to be removed. And the process of going beyond cleanup to actual reconstruction has barely begun.

For example, although Congress allocated $17 billion to the Department of Housing and Urban Development for Katrina relief, primarily to provide cash assistance to homeowners, as of last week the department had spent only $100 million. The first Louisiana homeowners finally received checks under a federally financed program just three days ago. Mississippi, which has a similar program, has sent out only about two dozen checks so far.

Local governments, which were promised aid in rebuilding facilities such as fire stations and sewer systems, have fared little better in actually getting that aid. A recent article in The National Journal describes a Kafkaesque situation in which devastated towns and parishes seeking federal funds have been told to jump through complex hoops, spending time and money they don’t have on things like proving that felled trees were actually knocked down by Katrina, only to face demands for even more paperwork.

Apologists for the administration will doubtless claim that blame for the lack of progress rests not with Mr. Bush, but with the inherent inefficiency of government bureaucracies. That’s the great thing about being an antigovernment conservative: even when you fail at the task of governing, you can claim vindication for your ideology.

But bureaucracies don’t have to be this inefficient. The failure to get moving on reconstruction reflects lack of leadership at the top.

Mr. Bush could have moved quickly to turn his promises of reconstruction into reality. But he didn’t. As months dragged by with little sign of White House action, all urgency about developing a plan for reconstruction ebbed away.

Mr. Bush could have appointed someone visible and energetic to oversee the Gulf Coast’s recovery, someone who could act as an advocate for families and local governments in need of help. But he didn’t. How many people can even name the supposed reconstruction “czar”?

Mr. Bush could have tried to fix FEMA, the agency whose effectiveness he destroyed through cronyism and privatization. But he didn’t. FEMA remains a demoralized organization, unable to replenish its ranks: it currently has fewer than 84 percent of its authorized personnel.

Maybe the aid promised to the gulf region will actually arrive some day. But by then it will probably be too late. Many former residents and small-business owners, tired of waiting for help that never comes, will have permanently relocated elsewhere; those businesses that stayed open, or reopened after the storm, will have gone under for lack of customers. In America as in Iraq, reconstruction delayed is reconstruction denied — and Mr. Bush has, once again, broken a promise.