My 2005 COLLEGE Football Preview

First I will give you my national top 10, then I will get into my Big 12 preview, followed by a few other notes, and then my Husker Preview.

First is my top 10. This is my prediction of FINAL POSTSEASON standing. So it's not how good a team is, but how good they are along with their schedule, thus giving them their finish. In other words my #1 is who I think will win the BCS Championship.

10 - Louisville. This is not the most talented team out there, but they have one of the easiest schedules of any good team. They lost some serious talent but are just reloading this year. I expect them to win the Big East in their first year in the conference. However even if they go unbeaten (I think they will lose 1), they won't be in the BCS Title game because of the weak schedule.

9 - Ohio St. Have some huge games, including Texas in week 2. If they win that game they could easily be unbeaten going into the final game of the year at Michigan. I don't think they'll win that last game however, and wouldn't be surprised to see them lose 1 or 2 more. They have great lines and a legit Heisman receiver in Ginn, and this is a serious BCS Title contender.

8 - Oklahoma. Serious reload for the Sooners this year. They lose lots on both sides of the ball except Adrian Peterson. In fact they only have 9 starters returning. The schedule isn't too bad with Nebraska and Tech on the road, A&M at home, and Texas neutral, but I think this is the year they finally lose to Texas, knocking them out of the title race. But if they win that one, don't be surprised to see them up there in the end.

7 - Miami (FL). Only return 4 starters on offense, but luckily one of those 7 they lost is Brock Berlin. They have tons of talent at QB now, and have the best defense in the ACC, maybe the country. They go to FSU first game of the year but will win that one. The tough one is late in the year at Va Tech, plus now there is an ACC title game. Should be another great year for the Canes.

6 - Georgia. They lost many good players at QB, WR, and DE (Green, Brown, Pollack), but have tons of talent coming back, including DJ Shockley at QB. Both their O-Line and D-Line are great, and they have a decent schedule. They have 3 tough games at Tennessee, home against Auburn, and neutral against Florida, and if they win 2 of the 3 along with the SEC Title game, they could be looking at a BCS Championship bid.

5 - Purdue. This team returns ALL 11 starters on defense, which was a very good defense last year. They lose QB Orton, but he didn't play well and was hurt last year and the returning QB's saw plenty of action. They could have gone unbeaten last year, as they had a chance to win every single game. They also miss Ohio St AND Michigan this year, but do travel to Minnesota, Penn St, and Wisconsin, and have ND and Iowa at home. Wisconsin will be very bad this year, and the only possible losses I see are Penn St, ND, and Iowa. This team could easily be unbeaten at the end of the year, but may get snubbed. I had a dream a few weeks ago that Purdue won the whole thing, but I decided to pick against them anyway.

4 - Texas. This is one of the best Texas teams in some time. My only problem is they lost their 2 best players, RB Cedric Benson and LB Derrick Johnson. They play at Ohio St in the 2nd game of the year and also travel to a much improved A&M, which is one of the toughest places to play. This is the year they knock off Oklahoma however, and if they win at Ohio St and A&M they will be in the BCS title game. This team has the most talent in the Big 12, maybe in the country, including Heisman Trophy candidate QB Vince Young, and even with 1 loss could win it all.

3 - LSU. This team is the most talented team in the country outside of Pasadena. They get Florida and Auburn at home and only tough road game is Alabama. However, as I'll talk about later, Alabama will be a damn good football team, and I could see a stumble. The new coach situation with Les Miles worries me, but this team has as good a shot as anyone at winning the whole thing with that talent and the schedule.

2 - USC. Most talented team in the land, no question. But history is against them. They also will get every team's best shot every second of every game. It is hard to keep such a large group of kids motivated that long. They have lots of holes on defense to replace, but won't have a problem with that. However, I think a loss at Cal this year is very possible, as they should have lost last year. Still, it is so hard to pick them to lose any game, I just chose to pick against them for 2 reasons - 1) I don't want them to win and 2) No one has ever won 3 straight titles. Not very good reasons.

1 - Michigan. Yes, Michigan. Definitely not the most popular title pick but I'm going with them. I see 2 losable games on the schedule - at Iowa and home against Ohio St. They have more skill than Iowa and I think they can win that one. It would be fun if Ohio St came into that last game unbeaten, and I think with the home field advantage they beat OSU to get to the Rose Bowl (which is where the BCS title game is played this year). I love strong lines in college football, and they have 2 of the best in the country, with tons of experience. They had an all Freshman backfield last year, and they were both very good, so with a year under their belts and one of the best O-lines around they will thrive. They did lose Braylon Edwards but have 3 other guys ready to fill his shoes. We've seen so many great WR's in the NFL from Michigan and they have more where that came from. They have one weakness - the secondary, but by the time they get to that Iowa game later in the year it will no longer be a weakness. Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl and beats USC 27-24.

BIG 12 PREVIEW
Here are my Big 12 picks:
North - 1.Colorado, 2(tie).Nebraska and Iowa St, 4.Missouri, 5.Kansas St, 6.Kansas
South - 1.Texas, 2.Oklahoma, 3(tie).Texas Tech and Texas A&M, 5.Oklahoma St, 6.Baylor
Big 12 Title - Texas beats Colorado 35-17

OVERVIEW
2005 should be a great season. From my top 10, I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 unbeatens, or even those same 3 or 4 with one loss. In other words, I really do think it's wide open. Many people think it's going to be easy for USC, and USC deserves that credit. But I'm not ready to give up on all those other great teams out there. Players can easily become complacent, lose focus, and if you do that even for a second another team will be right there to take advantage. In the end, the best teams will emerge, though we may not know who really is the best. In other words, we need a playoff system!!! But the BCS is fun too, and I will enjoy every minute of it.

I have a few other teams that deserve mention. I brought up Alabama earlier. They had an injured QB in Brody Croyle last year, who is back and healthy. They also have 16 starters returning, and are my #1 upset team this year, where I wouldn't be surprised seeing them take down the likes of Florida, Tennesse, LSU, or Auburn.
Iowa is next. They are overrated. They have lots of holes to fill on defense. I love QB Tate, and I think Ferentz is the best coach in the country, but lots of experts are picking them at or near the top. The schedule is brutal with games at Iowa St, Ohio St, and Purdue, plus have Michigan at home. Expect a top 25 finish, but not a top 10.
Florida. There is so much talent on this team. The only reason they are not in my top 5 is the toughest schedule in the country - Tennesse, Florida St, Georgia (neutral), and at Alabama, LSU, and South Carolina. That should be a fun one going against Spurrier. Next year expect this team to be #1 preseason.

HUSKER PREVIEW
Now it's time for my Husker preview. I think this will be a fun year with all of the talent Callahan has brought into Lincoln. Many talk about not liking the changes, some of which I also don't agree with, but I'm a Husker fan no matter what. Let's go over it postition by position:

QB - With Dailey gone, we now have the type of QB's this system needs. With Taylor, Ganz, and Beck we should be in good shape here and I expect an immediate improvement.
RB - Not much needs to be said here. 1000 yard back Cory Ross is back, with tremendous backups Brandon Jackson and Marlon Lucky contributing as well, this should be one of the best groups of RB's in the country.
WR - How can they not improve? Nunn had a great 2nd half of the year last year, and he and Taylor have worked very hard in the offseason. I expect Nunn to have a huge year (remember the last 1000 yard receiver? It's going to happen). There are also plenty of JUCO's to go along with Mark LeFlore (if he's healthy), and if Herian can get healthy this group will be solid.
OL - This is the 2nd year in this offense, and although some talent is lost, I expect good things anyway. There is a nice mix of experience and youth in this line, and I expect it to be solid.
DL - This should be one of the best DL's in the country this year, with 3 starters back in LeKevin Smith, Adam Carriker, and Titus Adams. Their backups are also solid, and I expect this great, experienced group to set the tone for the defense.
LB - The loss of Ruud will definitely hurt, but his brother will be a nice fill in for him. Add to that freshman Phillip Dillard, JUCO Steve Octavien, and Stewart Bradley, this unit should still be very solid.
DB - There are tough losses here too losing Fabian Washington and Josh Bullocks, but plenty of talent is ready to step in. Tierre Green and Cortney Grixby were named the starters, and have backup talent in JUCO Zackary Bowman. Don't forget possible All American Daniel Bullocks, and I expect this secondary to be much better.
Special Teams - How can punt returns get any worse? I think we may even get a return of longer than 10 yards. This area has been emphasized much and will be the strongest area of improvement, especially when the #1 high school kicker is added to the group in Jordan Congdon.
Overall - I expect serious improvement. Last season quit was written all over the faces of those players. Some blame coaching, which I agree was part of it, but a bigger part of it was bitterness. Those same players were the ones that hated to see Solich go (as was I). All those bitter players with bad attitudes are no longer on the team, and this group seems ready to move on to the next era of Husker football.

Here is how I see the results. We start with 5 home games. To go undefeated would not be easy, but wouldn't be that hard either. If we win 4 of those 5, then go to Baylor and win, that's a 5-1 start. The last half is tougher, but there are plenty of possible wins on the weak schedule. I see the last game against Colorado as the Big 12 North Championship - the winner goes on to the Big 12 Championship. But I see us losing that game. In the end, the Huskers go 7-4 and get to a decent bowl game, where we beat a middle of the road Big 10, SEC, or Pac 10 team, for an 8-4 finish. Pretty solid improvement and it will only get better in 2006!

GO BIG RED!!!